Tuesday, December 20, 2011

NOVA 2011 Stats

I’ll admit that while I’m terrible at anything above entry level algebra, I’ve fascinated by statistics and graphs. You’ve been warned.

So when I ran across this chart the other day, I figured I’d post it up.

The chart confirms a lot of what has been said among the competitive blogs about the win factories that are Space Wolves, Grey Knights, Blood Angles and IG. I was surprised to see Orks finish as well as they did, considering that they are largely considered a “second tier” army. The bottom finishers also confirmed much of the comp chatter, with CSM, Tau and Daemons holding that dubious distinction. Its true that there were only six armies apiece representing these bottom tier finishers, and I’d like to see if within these groups there were any successful outliers. Old Edition Crons where a surprise middle finish, but with only 3 people playing this could have offset by one really strong performer.

But the overall trend is indisputable: 5th ed. codices are markedly better than others, and being on the side of the Emperor can’t hurt your chances either. Sure, you can still have fun, win games, and make cool lists with 4th ed., or non-imperial but know this: the odds are a bit against you.

Again, hardly Breaking News, but its nice to have data to go along with conjucture every now and then.


  1. Had Alex Fennel not played Dark Angels, gone 7-1 and came in second, DA wouldn't have been near the top either, just like Daemons and Tau

  2. IMO a lot of the "better" actually means "easier to play" and/or "more forgiving". Also, with the lower numbers among the more marginal codices, it is far too easy for minor changes in the meta to catch people by surprise, cost them a couple of games to adjust and then make them take a hit.

    NOVA 2011 did that with their new terrain setup, especially on the lower tables where it was reported that after several games and the usual terrain bumping, transports could no longer drive troops into the center of the field on some boards. Gunline style lists could (and did) get screwed badly by too much BLOS. Notice, that isn't too much cover, but too much BLOS.

    On the bright side, MVB says he loves the terrain setup he devised, is going to keep it for NOVA 2012 (and it has spread around some since) and denies introducing a new "meta" to the game. Which means that it favors close range firepower and assault ability. Which is why Orks (plus WH & Necrons perhaps) did so well IMO, they excel when they get inside 24".

    Something I'm worried about are the rumors on cutting down cover saves in 6th. I'm not so sure about that because I think it will cause a big hit on durability, especially in the T3 crowd with 4, 5 or 6+ armor saves. As it is now, I don't really care about cover saves because I'm just working with torrent of fire to get MEQ down. Cover saves just means that my high AP weapons can get a slightly better chance of getting a kill.